Don’t Panic!

Rachel Franklin (@rsfrankl)

Newcastle University

Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.

–Kenneth Boulding

Let’s talk about population growth

Growth (and shrinkage) aren’t just one thing

And these processes matter for policy*

  • Understanding the role of age structure

  • And drivers of loss and growth (like, is it mostly age structure?)

  • And constraints on demographic fulfillment, whether migration or fertility



* local, regional, and national

Demographic changes are happening everywhere

  • Low fertility (below replacement level, actually)

  • Migration slowdowns

  • Net out-migration

  • Ageing



(and of course no place is a demographic island)

Remember the successes that got us where we are

  • Increased (healthy) life expectancy

  • Contraception and choice

  • Freedom of movement

And some additional rules to guide us

  1. No one stuck in place (at neighborhood or regional scale)

  2. No one forced to move, either

  3. Everyone able to achieve their desired family size

  4. Caution about internal migration as a magic bullet

  5. Emphasis on equality of opportunity

So where does that leave us?

  • Understanding non-demographic policies may have intended and unintended demographic consequences

    • All local and regional policy is demographic?

  • Getting comfortable with a new demographic status quo

  • Keeping in mind Southern California does not exist in a bubble

  • Less focus on growth: creating quality not quantity

  • More focus on well-being and quality of life

Thank you and remember: don’t panic

2024 Southern California Demographic Workshop | Franklin | September 24, 2024